4D Conversion Heatmap + Revenue Model
X: Access Tier (Trail / Range / Summit)
Z: Market Segment (WTP)
t: Relationship Stage
Heat: Conversion Probability
New Patient
Time Stage
New
Rotation
35°
Elevation
30°
0%50%100%
Trail — Standard
$3,300 – $6,300
per year · HSA eligible
Access: Portal-only, 72hr response
Scheduling: Self-schedule only
Testing: $500 screen / $1,000 diagnostic
Visits: $250/visit/indication (pre + post)
Example: 3 screens = $3,000 all-in
Range — Concierge
$5,000 – $7,500
per year · HSA eligible
Access: Real-time text, 24hr virtual
Scheduling: On-demand MD/PA/RN
Testing: $2,500 flat (full menu)
Visits: Pre/post included in $2,500
Example: 5 tests + visits = $2,500
Summit — Boutique
$7,500 – $12,500
per year · HSA eligible
Access: Direct MD, same-day urgent
Scheduling: Proactive MD-driven
Testing: Genetic tests included
Non-genetic: $1,000/test (MRI, cfDNA, etc.)
Example: Genomics free, MRI = $1,000
Strategic Insights from the Heatmap
Trail captures breadth: Stretched and Practical segments convert at 70-85% for Trail. Volume engine and funnel mouth.
Ratchet inflection at Aligned: Comfortable segment conversion for Range jumps from 45% → 52% between Established and Aligned.
Summit is a relationship product: Even Wealth-indifferent patients only convert at 55% as New, but reach 92% at Integrated.
Upgrade pressure peaks at Aligned: Trail patients who've experienced value surplus become ready for Range at 12-18 months.
Dead zones: Stretched × Summit stays below 8% at any stage. Don't market Summit to price-sensitive — let them ratchet up.
Margin Model — Cost-to-Serve Analysis
Layer cost assumptions on top of the revenue model. Adjust physician time, overhead, and lab costs to see per-tier margins. Uses the same patient distribution and conversion data as the Revenue Model view.
Total Cost
Total Revenue
Gross Margin
Margin %
Physician Cost
MD Hourly Rate$300/hr
Trail hrs/pt/yr4 hrs
Range hrs/pt/yr8 hrs
Summit hrs/pt/yr16 hrs
Overhead & Lab Costs
Overhead $/pt/yr$800
Trail lab $/test$400
Range flat-fee lab$1,200
Summit genetic lab$2,000
Summit non-gen $/test$600
Membership Margin vs Testing Margin by Tier
Calibration Engine
Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian updating, cell-by-cell editing, and sensitivity analysis. Changes propagate live to all other views.
0
Cells Modified
MC Simulations
Mean CI Width
Max Sensitivity
Simulation Parameters
Patients / run1,000
Number of runs100
CALIBRATION TIMELINE0 events
Annual Revenue Model
1 physician · 300 patients · Adjust segment and stage distributions to model scenarios. Revenue = membership fees + testing revenue, derived from heatmap conversion probabilities.
Market Segment Distribution
Total Patients300
Relationship Stage Mix
Total100%
Testing Assumptions
Trail test uptake40%
Avg Trail tests2
Range test uptake70%
Summit non-gen tests2
Summit test uptake50%
Total Annual Revenue
Revenue / Patient
Membership Revenue
Testing Revenue
Revenue by Tier + Source

Preset Scenarios
Click to load different market assumptions and see how revenue shifts.